The Fiscal Cliff: A Democrat’s Dream

Sometimes You Should Look Up the Numbers, Fiscal “Cliff” Edition

robert_murphyBob Murphy crunches the numbers on the “fiscal cliff” and the result is rather shocking.  I can’t say I’m surprised this is the case, but I’m surprised at the enormity of the result.  Based on CBO projections, going over the dreaded fiscal cliff would result in such terrible consequences as a dramatic lowering of the deficit (nearly cutting it in half the first year, and then again in the second) without any significant cuts in spending whatsoever, primarily through increased revenues.

Is this not exactly what Obama and the Democrats claim to want?  So why all the fearmongering?  There’s something fishy going on here…

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Gun Control: The Seen And The Unseen

Note:  I actually wrote this post on Tuesday, the 18th, prior to my computer issues  But it includes some great resources so I wanted to post it anyway.  Enjoy!

Man Attempts To Open Fire On Crowd At Movie Theater, Armed Off-Duty Sergeant Drops Him

EconomicPolicyJournal.com:  How People Are Murdered In The United States

These two links are to stories that are relevant to the gun control debate.  The first involves what might very well have been another multiple-victim public shooting, foiled by a law-abiding citizen with a gun.  The second, from EPJ, discusses how proposed legislation to crack down on “assault weapons” would impact a fraction of murders so small as to be nearly statistically insignificant.

My overall point here is that, like anything else, gun control is an economic issue.  One must weigh the costs versus the benefits.  The costs of America’s toleration of the private ownership of firearms are easily seen.  The media blasts them at full volume on a nightly basis.  The benefits are virtually unseen.  Most defensive firearms uses do not even involve shots being fired, and few ever make the national news.  Those that do certainly don’t get the sweeping coverage that a multiple-victim public shooting does.  Those who favor stricter gun control presume that the availability of firearms in America offers no benefits.  This is a foolish presumption.  But the benefits are much more difficult to measure than the costs.  When someone is dissuaded from attacking an individual because they brandished a firearm, we have no way to know whether that person might have been murdered or simply robbed, assaulted, raped, etc.

The economic calculations involved in this matter are not simple.  But to the extent that they can be done, they already have been, by John R. Lott.  I suggest anyone who is seriously interested in this topic pick up a copy of More Guns, Less Crime, and learn for themselves.

In the meantime, I urge everyone to step back from the debate for a moment and take a few days, weeks, or months to really process the relevant information, and then return to it.  Making important decisions with huge societal ramifications while still reeling from the effects of an emotionally-charged strategy is a very poor idea.  One need not go that far into the past to find incidents of this happening in America, with absolutely terrible consequences.

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ESPN President: We Know What’s Best For Our Viewers

 

Enough:  ESPN exec wants less Tim Tebow coverage

 

Tim Tebow

One thing I’ve always enjoyed is applying the lessons of free markets to stories that might not be considered political, philosophical, or economic at all.  This story, at first glance, seems to be a simple story about sports media.  The President of ESPN has essentially apologized for talking about Tim Tebow too much.  Tebow is a controversial figure in sports, primarily because he is devoutly religious, and secondarily because he has enjoyed tremendous success, despite a seeming lack of physical talent, relative to other players at his position.  He’s one of the most talked about and dynamic figures in all of sports, he’s among the most loved and among the most hated.  Everyone has an opinion about Tim Tebow.

So, one would think (correctly) that a media outlet whose entire justification for existence is to talk about sports, would talk about Tebow frequently.  And they have.  Much to the dismay of those who are anti-Tebow, he is talked about and obsessed over to a degree that most athletes, including many who have been more successful than Tebow, could never dream of.  And it has been very good for business.  In this very interview, the President of ESPN admits that whenever they talk about Tebow, ratings go up.

So what has any of this got to do with freedom?  Look at some of the quotes from the President of ESPN and tell me if you can’t spot the warning signs of a central planner.  The ratings, in this case, represent the market.  The market has spoken, and it loves Tim Tebow.  When the talking heads on ESPN start talking about Tebow, it causes more people to watch, not less.  This is exactly how the market is supposed to work.  Suppliers respond to customer demand, and as the demand for a particular product (in this case, Tebow discussion) increases, the supplier is incentivized to provide more of it.

But not so, in this case.  The central planner has decreed that they are simply giving the public altogether too much of what they want.  Here’s the exact quote:

We all know that if you focus on the Tebow story, for the next 10 minutes you’re going to do better. But the question is trying to take a long-term perspective and saying, ‘Guys, let’s not get over excited about one story and hyping it.’

The President of ESPN seems to present this as some sort of tradeoff.  Talking about Tebow might cause ratings to rise in the short term, at the expense of long-term harm to the company.  I’m quite curious as to what this prediction of long-term calamity is based upon.  The ratings are already available, so we know that in the short-term, Tebow is good for business.  I’d like to know exactly why this would somehow have the opposite effect in the long-term.  Rather than filling the obvious demand for Tebow coverage, the President of ESPN is attempting to dictate to the public what it should want.  Talk in the sports media blogosphere is that Tebow does not deserve the coverage he gets.  Does that sort of language, harping over what people deserve sound familiar?  Any parallels to politics in that one?

One last note – for those who claim that ESPN is simply drawing a line in the sand to preserve some semblance of journalistic integrity, please, don’t even bother.  They crossed that bridge a long time ago.

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Forbes Roundup

Is it just me, or is Forbes becoming increasingly libertarian these days?  I’ve found three articles all with a pretty pro-liberty slant.

In France’s Welfare Status Quo, Are We Seeing America’s Future?

This article gives some pretty concrete evidence on how welfare removes the incentive to work.  Many people on welfare are better off staying on it then finding a job, even a moderately paying job.  And this isn’t ONLY true in France, our own welfare programs create the same problems.

 

A Revealing Ad Exposes The Department Of Energy’s Hypocrisy

I have to say, I’ve heard this ad tons of times, and although I always hated it, I never quite made this connection.  The ad does an excellent job of explaining scarcity and tradeoffs… in a way that the government hopes you will never actually believe.

 

Taxes On “Fatty Foods,” And Their Unintended Consequences

Anytime I hear about “unintended” consequences of government action, I’m always skeptical… that the consequences might have been completely intended.   The part of this article I enjoyed best was how it points out that sin taxes can be touted either as a way to raise revenue or a way to decrease undesirable behavior, but not both.  After all, if taxes on fatty foods cause people to stop eating fatty foods, then nobody will be paying the fatty foods tax and the government will not take in any more money.  Therefore, all these taxes do is allow the government to steal more money from the lower classes.

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Jeffrey Immelt Is A Big Fan Of Communism

Head of Obama’s Jobs Council: ‘State-Run Communism’ Actually ‘Works’ | Video | TheBlaze.com.

Ah, Jeffrey Immelt.  You may know him as the CEO of General Electric.  Or perhaps you know him as a key advisor to Barack Obama, head of his “jobs council” no less!  What you might not know about Mr. Immelt is that he’s a really big fan of Communism.  And no, that’s not me being provocative by simply treating “communist” and “democrat” as synonymous, I mean this one completely literally.  Watch the video on The Blaze and listen for yourself.  Immelt’s comments harken back to a simpler era, the glorious 1930s, when America was in a depression, and over in Europe, autocratic communist and socialist governments made up phony production numbers that progressives in the west both believed, and celebrated.  The elites of the 1930s were big fans of Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini.  Remind me how that worked out again?

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Consider the Second Amendment

Note:  This post was inspired by a post I recently made on the discussion forums of Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom in a topic about the second amendment.

The second amendment, as currently enforced, is an absolute joke and is completely contrary to what the founders actually intended.  It was included specifically and solely as a check on government power.  The founders believed in the absolute right of a population to resist a tyrannical government by the force of arms if necessary.

Consider for a moment the fact that in the late eighteenth century, the level of technology was such that the average citizen possessed a weapon that was, in most respects, a near-equal of the weapons that were possessed by the best equipped professional armies of the world.  Many merchants and local militia captains (note that militias were voluntary associations not necessarily organized or supervised by any government entity) owned cannons and basic artillery.  Everything the government had, the citizens had also.  This is what made an armed revolution possible, which the founders considered to be a good thing.

Flash forward to today.  The second amendment today apparently has nothing to do with revolution, but rather, exists only to protect our right to hunt.  We are forbidden from possessing the overwhelming majority of weapons that governments and police forces have an abundance of.  Those who demand even greater restrictions insist that private citizens have absolutely no business possessing arms that were designed for military use.  Argue in favor of fewer restrictions and you will be immediately challenged with something like:  “What?  You think we should just let anyone buy a nuclear bomb who wants one?”

Nuclear weapons aside (we’ve got a looooooooooooooooooong way to go before we even come close to crossing that bridge) it is abundantly clear that the founders’ intentions are being violated.  Imagine a hypothetical scenario that, shortly after the ratification of the bill of rights, George Washington raised a large standing army, armed them with the best military equipment available at the time, and instructed them to go across the nation, confiscating all firearms and cannons.  Exactly how well do you think this would have gone over with the citizenry?  Do you think they would accept the explanation that we accept today?  Would they be content with the fact that the government is allowing them to keep their swords, shields, spears, bows, and arrows?  Would they willingly accept the fact that the government’s armies are allowed technology that is vastly superior to what a private citizen is allowed?

Absolutely not.  An attempt to disarm the populace in such a brazen manner would have met with armed resistance.  Yet today, this is exactly what we must put up with.  To suggest that certain classes of weapons should be available exclusively to government agents goes completely and entirely against the spirit of the second amendment.  Back in colonial times, the technological playing field was essentially even, and yet, it didn’t result in chaos and constant mass-murder.  Despite the fact that virtually everyone held the most advanced weapon on the planet, society still managed to hold together.  Today’s gun-grabbers are mere hysterics, using fear-mongering to attempt to further oppress the citizenry, and establish their ultimate goal, true omnipotent government.

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Peter Schiff Does the Media’s Work For Them

Peter Schiff: The Fantasy of a 91% Top Income Tax Rate – WSJ.com.

The media loves pointing to the fact that in the past, nominal tax rates on the upper tax brackets were much higher, and that some of the time, this occurred when economic growth was high and the deficit was low.

Of course, anyone who is used to dealing with government/media propaganda automatically knows that simply trusting them on this is a poor idea.  In this excellent piece, Peter Schiff (famous for having correctly predicted the housing bubble) utterly demolishes this line of thought.

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Government Gets A Taste Of Its Own Salad

Federal law may have unintended consequences for schoolkids at lunch | New rules lead to more waste, fewer healthy choices, some complain.

This story comes from my local newspaper.  I absolutely love stories of government bureaucracies opposing each other.  It should be a “teachable moment” as they say, but instead it is typically handled as this article does, with a shrug of the shoulders and a “oh well, I’m sure these negative consequences were totally unintended!”

Who would have ever guessed that onerous reporting requirements might not be incredibly inconvenient only to evil, rich, fast-food companies?  Who could have possibly foreseen that added bureaucracy and regulation would make life much worse for students, depriving them of greater variety in meals?

It’s best not to think about these things too much, citizen.  Rest easy, safe in the knowledge that your kind federal overlords truly have your best interest at heart.

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Debt Can’t Burden Future Generations? : The Freeman : Foundation for Economic Education

Debt Can’t Burden Future Generations? : The Freeman : Foundation for Economic Education.

https://i0.wp.com/images.mises.org/ZombieBook.jpgI’ve got a huge backlog of articles I’ve been saving to eventually discuss.  Here’s one by everyone’s favorite singing economist, Bob Murphy, in which he discusses the fallacy of “we owe it to ourselves.”  I don’t have much to add to his analysis, other than to maybe encourage everyone to take a step further back and think of the issue in more general terms.

Anyone who uses the language of we owing money to ourselves is clearly invoking a collectivist worldview.  This should immediately set off alarm bells in your head that such a person is up to no good and is probably misinformed to boot.  There is no collective entity that is merely moving money back and forth between accounts like an individual might between his checking and savings.  There are individual Americans who are being taxed so that the money can then be given to other individual Americans.  The national debt does not represent money that we owe to ourselves, it represents money that tax payers (current and future) owe to welfare recipients (past and present).

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Remember: “Bipartisan Compromise” Created the “Fiscal Cliff”

How to properly approach the fiscal cliff.

How to properly approach the fiscal cliff.

Am I the only person who actually remembers 2011?  The entire media certainly seems to have forgotten.  All you hear about today is how critical it is for Congress to “compromise” with Obama (which of course means, raise taxes dramatically and do not cut spending at all) in order to avoid the dreaded “fiscal cliff.”  Both the liberal and conservative media (who never agree on anything whatsoever) are absolutely convinced that going over the fiscal cliff would be a complete and unmitigated disaster which must be avoided at all costs.

Somehow though, during all the media analysis, the question of exactly why the fiscal cliff exists in the first place never seems to be asked.  The implication is that it just magically appeared.  Something that just sort of happened on its own.  Something that the insurance industry would refer to as an “act of God.”  Except it wasn’t an act of God, it was an act of people who think they are God:  Obama, and the U.S. Congress.

You see, back in 2011, those stupid evil tea party Congressmen had the unmitigated nerve to actually suggest that being $16 trillion in debt maybe wasn’t the greatest idea of all time.  That perhaps spending a trillion more than we take in was a pretty poor idea, and that maybe we should do something about it.  So, when Obama came to them to demand that they raise the debt ceiling and let him borrow even more money, they said no.  The MSM, predictably, pitched a fit, and the Democrats immediately threatened to stop paying the military and stop issuing social security checks.  Everyone seemed to agree that refusing to borrow even more money would result in complete chaos.  They absolutely insisted that we have some sort of bipartisan compromise deal, where Obama got to borrow more money right now in exchange for a promise that he would cut some spending later.

This resulted in the “Budget Control Act of 2011.”  In an incredibly rare display of intelligence and foresight, the Republicans, knowing that the Democrats would absolutely refuse to cut spending, had built-in across the board “sequestration” cuts that would kick in automatically if the unconstitutional “super committee” couldn’t come up with cuts of their own.  The super committee, to the surprise of absolutely nobody, didn’t come up with anything, so now, we face the sequestration cuts.  It is critical to remember that this bill passed with bipartisan support, and was supported and signed into law by Barack Obama.  Despite these “automatic cuts” being built-in to the legislation, most tea party conservatives were skeptical, knowing that the government still had plenty of time to avoid them.

Which is exactly what is happening now.  The exact same people who fought in favor of the sequestration cuts have now given them a sinister, disastrous-sounding nickname (fiscal cliff) and insist that if allowed to occur, will end civilization as we know it.  Back in 2011, when the tea party had some political momentum, Obama wanted everyone to believe he was serious about cutting spending.  Now that he has the momentum, he wants everyone to believe that cutting spending is a disaster that must not be allowed to occur.  The RINOS in the GOP are no better.  The “solution” that they gave us last year is now the “problem” this year that requires a NEW “bipartisan compromise” which will surely raise taxes now in exchange for vague promises of future spending cuts that will undoubtedly never materialize.  It is critical that we see through this charade, and refuse to believe in the boogeyman of the fiscal cliff.  Last year, we were promised spending cuts.  It is time to demand them.

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